Put and end to war !!
Here’s wishing all of you a very happy new year. Hope 2023 brings to you all that you hoped for.
The current status of the Ukrainian invasion as on Jan 3rd 2023. (Source: https://liveuamap.com)
While the rest of the world celebrates, it won’t be such a happy new year for folks in Ukraine. I pray that the war ends soon and peace and sanity return to the ravaged land. No one is winning this war. Both belligerents are at a Mexican standoff. A withdrawal from either party would signify loss of face (for Russia) or kowtowing to tyranny (for Ukraine).
For Russia, the stakes are high. It has its prestige at stake. The Russian army has long been considered as a formidable fighting force and the second most powerful army on earth, preceded by the USA. But its reputation in this war has taken a serious hammering. One indication that the Russians have started taking the Ukrainians seriously is Russian President Putin’s referral to this conflict as a ‘War’. When Russian Tanks and troops first crossed the Ukrainian borders on February 24th 2022, Putin termed the invasion as a ‘Military Exercise’ making it look as if his Army was out on a routine military drill. No one gave Ukraine much of a chance. Pundits predicted Ukraine to capitulate within a few weeks.
But Ukraine, to its credit has upset all the equations by bravely holding out against the onslaught of the invading army. They sure as hell are giving the Russians a run for their money. Despite losing men and territory, they’ve made more than a fight out of this and have tormented their invaders no end. It’s the classic Lion chasing the Deer scenario. The Lion in this case is Russia, which is fighting for territory and prestige. Ukraine is the Deer, which is fighting for its very existence and sovereignty. Since the impulse to save one’s life is greater than any other force, Ukraine is forced to fight back, and has done so admirably. Sure, the Russians have captured important territory in the East and the South. But it’s still too premature to say that Ukraine has capitulated.
Consider the following points:
Ten months into the invasion and Ukraine has not surrendered, conditionally or unconditionally.
Ukrainian forces have actually recaptured certain key areas occupied by the Russians.
They’ve made life difficult for the occupying forces, forcing the invaders to fight dearly for every square inch of land.
Each day, numerous Russian soldiers and top generals have been KIA. Though Russia downplays the numbers, we know that the actual toll could be far more than reported.
Russian soldiers and people are disillusioned with Putin’s regime. This can be seen by the large number of people who have defected from the country to avoid forcefully being drafted.
Even those who are fighting are totally disillusioned with the war. They lack the motivation and morale to fight effectively, which makes a huge difference.
Many Russian soldiers complain that they’re actually using outdated equipment. Some have stated that they’re actually using World War One era rifles (if rumours are to be believed).
The US and its allies are supplying Ukraine with the latest sophisticated weapons and equipment, with which the Ukrainians are pounding the hell out of the enemy.
The Cossacks are failing short of weapons and ammo and are being force to import the same from other countries such as Iran, China and North Korea.
The world has unilaterally condemned Russia’s invasion and have imposed huge sanctions which are slowly breaking the Russian economy.
Top multinational companies like McDonalds, KFC and others have exited Russia.
Russia has been banned from participating in major worldwide cultural and sporting events and is slowly getting isolated from the global arena.
Despite the consequences, the Russians seem to have committed themselves too deeply to think of withdrawal. It would do them good to take a look at the lessons history has taught them.
The Russian military has a chequered past. On the bright side are stories of their glorious fightback and bravery against the invading Fascist Nazi invaders in World War Two. But on the dark side are numerous instances of not so proud moments which the Cossacks would not like to bring up.
Take for instance, their loss to Japan in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05. This war was the first instance of an Imperialist power being defeated by an Asian nation. Russia fought bravely, but due to incompetent leadership and shoddy logistics ended up on the losing side.
Even in the First World War, the scenario was very much the same. Russia entered World War One with the largest army (more than one million plus soldiers). But many of their troops were poorly trained and ill-equipped to fight against the highly disciplined armies of Germany and its allies, to say the least apart from poor leadership and overstretched supply lines. This resulted in a huge number of casualties and defeats. There were many cases of soldiers simply being killed because they had nothing to fight back with. Furthermore to complicate matters, back home in Russia many peasants had been forcefully recruited for war and fighting in the front. This meant fewer farm hands for labor, which in turn led to massive food shortages. Inflation rose to an all time high. Fed up with the incompetence of the Russian Ruling elite, the people revolted in what now called the famous Bolshevik revolution of 1917 and Russia was forced to withdraw from the war.
And it was very much the same story in the latter Russo-Finnish wars and the Afghanistan occupation in the late eighties. Russia hasn’t learnt very much from history.
And those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
If the Russian military think tank can muster the strength to look beyond its ego, it will find numerous successful cases which it could apply to its own cause. One such case I can think of is the Indo-Pakistani war of 1971, also known as the Bangladesh Liberation War.
In the 1971 War, India took on Pakistan for the third time since independence, the previous encounters being in 1948 and 1965 . Both of these wars ended in a stalemate.
India, despite severe diplomatic pressure went to war with Pakistan to liberate East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) from the oppressive rule of West Pakistan (now Pakistan). In a Blitzkrieg like campaign which lasted just thirteen days, the Indian army:
* Battled the enemy simultaneously on two fronts.
* Inflicted heavy casualties.
* Decimated enemy naval and air power.
* And forced the enemy to submit to a public surrender.
History was made (and some geography too) as seventy five million oppressed people were liberated from the clutches of tyranny. The proud and independent nation of Bangladesh was born.
Commander of Pakistani Army Eastern Command, General A.A.K. Niazi signing the Instrument of surrender in 1971 at Dhaka with the Indian army.
Historians who chronicled the war can argue that India’s victory was mainly due to its superior and vast military as well as some territorial advantages. But I disagree completely. India’s victory was mainly due to the below factors:
Meticulous planning and strategy by the Top commanders taking every little factor into account.
The mettle of Indian politicians to withstand International diplomatic pressure and not cave in.
The brazenness of the Indian Army General Sam Manekshaw to stick to his convictions and not kowtow to the political establishment, even at the risk of jeopardizing his career.
The carte blanche given by the Indian government to the Army to carry out its plans without red tape and undue interference.
Lastly, the exemplary bravery shown by the armed forces in the battlefield.
India’s victory story is an excellent case study of how proper strategy and planning will always triumph over brute force and raw power.
There are a number of lessons which Russia can learn from this war (and probably wars such as the Six day war and others).
Coming to think of it, the current situation is somewhat similar to the 1971 war. The scene is more or less the same, but the actors have changed.
Ukraine is playing the role of East Pakistan, fighting for freedom and sovereignty.
Russia is playing the role of West Pakistan, looking to suppress opposition, capture land and redeem prestige.
The NATO is playing the role of India, supporting the cause of the oppressed and a champion of freedom.
India, like NATO was passively involved at first. But when the crisis started escalating, it was forced to resort to a military solution.
NATO too is currently passively involved by supporting Ukraine with sophisticated weaponry and training its soldiers. It would be safe to say that Ukraine would have capitulated much earlier had it not been for NATO’s support. But for this current conflict to come to a decisive end, NATO has to become actively involved. The only drawback in the event of a direct confrontation between both these powers would be the risk of a nuclear confrontation. But for the world’s sake, I think NATO has to take that risk.
Otherwise, I don’t see any quick and meaningful end to this conflict which has been dragging on and on with no clear winner. As Sun Tzu, the famous Chinese war tactician has stated:
“There is no instance of any nation benefiting from prolonged warfare.”
Clearly, no one is winning this war. No one ever actually wins any war. In the current conflict those who are paying the highest price are the people of Ukraine. As the war drags on, more and more innocent people are killed and thousands are being displaced. No end seems in sight.
I pray for the conflict to end as soon as possible and for peace and stability to return.