Who's winning the war in ukraine?
The current status of the Russian occupation of Ukraine as on 23rd April 2023. Red areas are areas currently controlled by Russia. Gray areas are those which have been reclaimed by Ukraine. (Source: https://liveuamap.com/)
When the Russian army first made its way into Ukraine in the wee hours of February 24th 2022, military pundits predicted that it would probably be a matter of a few weeks, or maybe a month at the max for Ukraine to capitulate.
Global Newspaper Front Page headlines on Feb 25th 2023, a day after Russia launched it's invasion of Ukraine.
However, more than a year has passed since Russian tanks and heavy artillery first rolled down on the road to Kiev on that fateful morning, but Ukraine is far from surrendering. In fact, it is giving the Russian military a good run for their money by staging an effective resistance, much to Vladmir Putin’s chagrin and the admiration of the world. And even after more than a year of relentless, bloody fighting it shows no sign of giving up.
There are innumerable articles all across the web which highlight the reasons for Putin’s invasion and whether they are justified or not. That is not the purpose of my blog.
I have tried to make some logical guesses as to what lies ahead: for Ukraine, for Russia and the world at large. This conflict has ceased to be a local conflict. Each country in this world has been involved in it: directly or indirectly. Hence the outcome of this conflict will significantly determine the geopolitics of the world.
But first let’s look at the current scenario. Who’s got the upper hand? Is it Ukraine or Russia?
By and large, I’d say Ukraine has got the psychological edge in this conflict. It has managed to hold its own against an army purported to be ten times as strong. It has made the invading army literally fight for every inch of land captured. It has organised an effective resistance which hasn’t made life easy for the occupying forces. It has garnered the sympathy and support of major world nations, especially NATO, which provides it with military and economic aid.
However, is it close to winning the war? Not as yet! Even with all the aid and support Ukraine can muster, it would probably take more time for Ukraine to rid itself of the occupying forces on its own.
A year into the war and this is it how it looks for Ukraine:
The Positives:
Ukraine has put up a stiff resistance and held its own against the invaders.
It hasn’t surrendered yet: conditionally or unconditionally.
Since it has been the victim, it has managed to garner the support of the majority of the world.
It is receiving aid in the form of complex weapons and heavy equipment from NATO and other allies, which has enabled it to stay in the fight.
The Negatives
20-25% of the country still lies under occupation. It hasn’t been able to reclaim most of the occupied territory.
It’s totally dependent on military and economic aid from NATO and allies.
Aid received is merely a trickle and not really on the scale actually required; despite NATO’s assurances on the same.
Many Ukrainian civilians from occupied territories have been forced to escape to neighbouring countries where they live as refugees.
Much of Ukraine’s infrastructure in the occupied territory lies in shambles. It would require billions of dollars of aid and support to help rebuild it.
Each day, there are mounting casualties. Probably not on the scale of Russia, but significant nevertheless.
It doesn’t have nuclear weapons in its arsenal, to provide a deterrent to the enemy.
Does this mean that Russia is winning?
Far from it !
Here is how it looks for Russia, a year into the war:
Positives
Russia has managed to capture and hold onto nearly 20-25% of Ukrainian territory.
It has been mostly successful in its objective of building a land bridge to Crimea, which was hitherto isolated from the Russian mainland.
Has successfully withstood the sanctions and embargoes placed on it till date, and does not look to cave in.
Has found new supporting partners in China, Iran and North Korea.
Negatives
Hasn’t forced the enemy to a surrender: conditional or unconditional despite being the stronger army on paper.
Has suffered immense casualties on the front.
Totally underestimated the Ukrainian resolve and the will to fight back.
Military advances handicapped by faulty logistics and thin, over stretched supply lines.
Many prominent Russian Commanders have been KIA
The Putin administration has been forced to resort to unconventional tactics such as forceful conscription, recruiting convicts, felons and mercenaries (the Wagner group).
Most Russian people are not happy with this war. Many have escaped Russia to avoid being drafted forcefully.
Discontentment against Putin grows. The establishment brutally suppresses any voice raised against the invasion (people are mysteriously falling outside high-rise hotel windows 😕).
Russia has been termed the aggressor and is isolated by most of the world in sporting and cultural events.
The US and EU continue to impose sanctions against Russia which is hurting its economy.
Weaknesses in military planning and execution exposed.
Many Russian fighters are still fighting with obsolete, outdated equipment.
Forced to turn to Iran and North Korea for weapons due to local shortages.
Loss of face for the Russian military. It’s no longer considered as the world’s second most powerful fighting force.
So it doesn’t look too good for Russia either.
From what I see, it seems no one is winning this war.
And now, coming to the million dollar question, what’s going to be the likely outcome? How will it all end (if at all)?
Let’s analyse the possible outcomes.
Outcome # 0: A ceasefire and peaceful settlement
IMHO, I’ve termed outcome # 0 since it is the least likely event to happen. Though there have been talks of negotiations and peaceful discussions, both countries have rejected offers for talks even under the umbrella of third party mediation.
Both parties have their set of conditions if they are to meet on the opposing sides of a conference table.
Ukraine rightly feels itself a victim of unprovoked naked Russian aggression (though Putin will dispute that) and wants a return to the status quo before the conflict.
Russia on the other hand, will be loath to give up the territories it has annexed, given their strategic importance in its connection with Crimea (which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014).
Due to this deadlock, no headway has been made so far in this direction. Outcome # 1: Things continue as they are.
Let’s assume that things continue as they are at present. Here’s how things will play out:
NATO keeps supplying Ukraine with weapons and continues its passive involvement.
Ukraine and Russia keep slugging it out. Territory is captured, recaptured, liberated etc. etc. And this saga keeps continuing for years to come.
Both sides sustain heavy casualties.
The economies of both countries will be in the doldrums, thanks to the constant strain and grind of war. Maybe Russia’s economy might be in a better shape, but will still be battered nonetheless.
It’s a no win situation for either. Both nations will bleed each other dry. Maybe one side will eventually triumph, but the cost will probably be too high for claiming a victory.
Outcome # 2: NATO joins the conflict
So far, NATO has only played a passive role in the conflict by providing Ukraine with weapons and aid, much to Russia’s chagrin. Of course, Russia has expressed its displeasure on NATO’s continued support. There’s been a show of sabre-rattling by both sides, but NATO has shown no indication of actively committing its forces till date.
However, if NATO does decide to directly intervene, there is all probability that this situation could escalate into a full scale global war.
And if this does happen, there are again two possible outcomes:
Outcome # 2a: The confrontation is non-nuclear
Knowing the repercussions of using nuclear weapons, both sides might opt out of using them on the battlefield, or against civilian targets. I say ‘might’ since this is a slim possibility. Without nukes, NATO has a superior advantage against Russian forces, both in conventional and non-conventional warfare.
The eventual confrontation will end up with NATO achieving a victory. But it will be far from one sided. Maybe China, Iran and North Korea will side with Russia. NATO will triumph maybe, but it will be a hard-fought and bloody victory.
Outcome # 2b: The confrontation is nuclear
There’s no telling what will happen when Russia is pushed to a corner. Maybe it would be forced to resort to using nuclear weapons. And if that happens (God Forbid) NATO won’t hold back.
The repercussions of a nuclear war might even be more severe than we imagine, both for Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the rest of the World.
If reports are to be believed, today’s nuclear weapons are a thousand times more powerful than the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If used, they have the potency to destroy not just entire cities, but huge regions as well. Hundreds of thousands of innocent souls will perish. The radiation and subsequent fallout will affect not just the impacted regions, but the rest of the world.
It could be the beginning of the end of the world, as we know it.
Outcome # 3: The formation of a new World Order
Regardless of who wins the current conflict, there is one very palpable outcome in this chain of events: the formation of a new counterbalancing force to NATO and its allies.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991, NATO didn’t get a rival powerful enough to challenge it in the sphere of world events. Since the end of the second world war and the cold war, the US and Western Europe have played a dominant role in shaping the world’s political landscape. Now that might be about to change.
The way things are going, I foresee an alliance of Russia with China, Iran, North Korea and others to act as a counterweight to the US and the Western nations and challenge its political hegemony.
As our EAM, Mr. Jaishankar so suavely put it, “Europe has to get out of this mindset that its problems are the world’s problems.”
And how will this affect India? India will have to play a very delicate tightrope act and balance its relations with both sides. But then it has always been doing that, since the days of the cold war.
India has had good trade relations with the US and Europe and will seek to maintain those ties. On the other hand, India and Russia have had a strong alliance in matters of defence, space-tech, natural gas etc. (Russia is India’s biggest arms provider) and India sees no reason to change the order of things.
But given that it has always been non-aligned since independence, there is no reason it would seek to forgo that stance. In the current crisis, India has maintained her interests admirably by withstanding international pressure to take sides.
Conclusion
In hindsight, the situation in Ukraine looks to be a complex situation which does not present any straightforward and simple diplomatic or military solution.
Diplomatic negotiations look distant since both parties haven’t shown the inclination to come forward to the discussion table.
There’s also no simple military solution to this conflict.
If the battle continues in the current trend, both parties wear each other down in a grinding battle of attrition. It’s a war which no one will win.
The only way this conflict takes a decisive turn would be if NATO actively joins the conflict. But NATO so far has shown no inclination to get involved. Even if it does, there is the risk that this conflict might result in nuclear Armageddon.
So we’re currently stuck in a Catch-22 situation.
Who is to blame for the conflict? Is it Putin, who dreams of restoring the Soviet Union to its days of yore? Or is it NATO, which relentlessly continues its expansion eastwards and fuelling Russian insecurity?
Regardless of what the outcome of this conflict is, and who is to blame it: it’s the people of Ukraine who have paid the heaviest price, being unwittingly caught in the crossfire of the pseudo-battle between two world powers in the quest for global supremacy.
When elephants battle, it is the grass that suffers.
I pray that peace is restored as early as possible in Ukraine and things return to normal once more.